Where will the next new NFL team find a home?

photosounds // Shutterstock Baseball may be as American as apple pie, but football is our national pastime. It’s the United States’ favorite spectator sport–41% of Americans love it, compared to 10% who prefer second-ranked baseball, per a 2024 Gallup poll. The NFL is a hit with TV audiences. The 2024 regular season set all-time ratings highs in Week 1 with 21 million viewers per game. On Thanksgiving Day, the league set another record for the third year in a row with an average of 34.2 million viewers. Viewership for the regular season averaged 17.5 million people per game, down just 2.2% from a strong 2023. The NFL enjoys a robust fan base, and it’s also skewing younger. Nearly 60% of millennials are devotees, according to YouGov polling as of January, making up the league’s biggest cohort. With a following that has generational staying power, expanding the NFL’s roster to 32 teams makes sense. The league is indeed eyeing expansion, though it may not come in the U.S. It has sought international growth for decades, starting in 1950 with an exhibition game in Ottawa, Canada. Since then, there have been 55 regular-season international games in the United Kingdom, Canada, Mexico, Germany, and Brazil. In 2025, the NFL will stage up to eight games outside the U.S., including its first in Spain. Its teams also have rights in 19 international markets. However, many American fans hope the NFL will come to their cities. Windfall conducted a statistical analysis of the characteristics of metro areas with existing NFL teams to identify 10 cities that could become the home of the next NFL team. For each metro area, data from the 2023 five-year estimates of the American Community Survey are included, as well as information on its top-tier professional sports teams. For all its popularity, the NFL has expanded slowly. In the last 30 years, only four teams have joined its ranks, the most recent being the Houston Texans in 2002. Since the NFL’s founding in 1920, franchises have moved around the country–some multiple times–typically causing fan heartbreak. In 1995, Cleveland Browns owner Art Modell blindsided the city when he announced he’d move the team to Baltimore over failed negotiations to renovate Municipal Stadium. In response, the state passed the “Modell Law” to prevent other pro sports team owners from abandoning the city if they use a taxpayer-supported stadium. Now, the city has invoked the Modell Law to keep current Browns owners Dee and Jimmy Haslam from moving the team to the Brook Park suburb. Other squads have bounced from city to city–the Raiders have moved three times since their founding in 1970–for better facilities. Perhaps the most outrageous incident occurred in 1984 when Baltimore Colts owner Robert Irsay moved the team to Indianapolis in the middle of the night without telling anyone. Lousy team performance, dwindling attendance, and a lack of stadium improvements–common themes–prompted the change. The NFL often awards expansion franchises to markets that have been abandoned. After the Texans replaced the Oilers, a team that left Houston over stadium issues after nearly four decades in Texas, the NFL returned to the nation’s fourth-largest city six years later, partly thanks to a new government-backed $450 million stadium. That’s almost chump change compared to the cost of new stadiums today. An August 2024 analysis by Front Office Sports found that eight stadiums’ price tags have come in at over $1 billion. SoFi Stadium, home to the Los Angeles Rams and Los Angeles Chargers, tops the list at $5.95 billion. SoFi is a rarity, just one of three NFL stadiums paid for solely with private financing. The premium features at SoFi Stadium–including an 80 million-pixel video board and fan seating that’s as close to the field as the NFL allows–inspire other team owners to seek their own futuristic stadiums. That mostly happens when governments agree to taxpayer subsidies to fund these extravagant buildings. Of course, fancy stadiums are expensive to maintain, and fans typically pay the price. From 2006 to 2023, the average NFL ticket price per Team Marketing Report rose nearly 94% to $120.94. Suites range from $20,000 to $60,000, according to Suite Experience Group. For NFL teams, it pays to be in a market with a fan base that can afford it, so economic factors are vital when team owners and the league look to new markets. Still, many cities in the country have the fan base and economic stability to support a team. The following 10 cities all emerged as viable candidates in Windfall’s analysis–but whether or not the NFL comes to town remains to be seen. #10. Columbus metro area, Ohio Sean Pavone // Shutterstock – Population: 2.2M – Median age: 36.6 – Median net worth: $79,847 – Existing professional teams: — Columbus Crew (MLS) — Columbus Blue Jackets (NHL) Though Columbus is the country’s 14th-largest city, it’s got big competition in building an NFL fan base. Ohio is home to two other pro football teams–the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns–and each city is about a two-hour drive from Columbus. However, the biggest rival is college football. D1.ticker reports that The Ohio State University Buckeyes averaged 104,216 spectators per game in 2024, whereas the largest NFL stadium has a maximum capacity of 82,500. #9. Virginia Beach metro area, Virginia Kyle J Little // Shutterstock – Population: 1.8M – Median age: 37.2 – Median net worth: $80,533 – No professional sports teams The lack of a suitable stadium hampers Virginia Beach’s chances of getting an NFL team–or any pro sports team, for that matter. A deal to move the NBA’s Sacramento Kings to the region collapsed in 2013, partly because the area didn’t have a big enough arena. Comparatively, the smallest NFL stadium, Soldier Field in Chicago, holds 61,500. NFL stadiums are also expensive, as the two newest cost an estimated $5.95 billion for SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles and $2.31 billion for Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.   #8. Salt Lake City metro area, Utah Sean Pavone // Shutterstock – Population: 1.3M – Median age: 33.7 – Median net worth: $95,045 – Existing professional teams: — Utah Jazz (NBA) — Real Salt Lake (MLS) — Utah Royals (NWSL) — Utah Hockey Club (NHL) From 2008 to 2023, Utah was the fastest-growing state in the country, with an average annual growth of 1.7% per year, according to a Pew analysis. While an August 2023 poll conducted by Deseret News and the Hinckley Institute of Politics found that 33% of Utahns would prefer having an NFL team to one from any other sport, Salt Lake City has focused on the 2024 debut of its NHL franchise–for now named Utah Hockey Club. #7. Sacramento metro area, California NorCalStockMedia // Shutterstock – Population: 2.4M – Median age: 38.3 – Median net worth: $93,986 – Existing professional teams: — Sacramento Kings (NBA) The Raiders, a team that’s called Oakland, Los Angeles, and–since 2020–Las Vegas home, almost became the Sacramento Raiders in the 1990s. Team owner Al Davis wanted to move the squad out of LA, and Sacramento was on board, but they couldn’t make a deal work. Instead, the city has had teams in the United Football League, Arena Football League, Canadian Football League, and more. A planned Major League Football team has not played a game. #6. Raleigh metro area, North Carolina Mihai_Andritoiu // Shutterstock – Population: 1.4M – Median age: 37.5 – Median net worth: $96,066 – Existing professional teams: — North Carolina Courage (NWSL) — Carolina Hurricanes (NHL) Raleigh-Durham once flirted with the NFL, putting in a bid for an expansion franchise in 1991. Today, city business leaders seem more intent on bringing in an MLB franchise, as it’s the one pro sport that’s not in North Carolina. MLB Raleigh started in 2019 and got more serious in late 2023 when Carolina Hurricanes owner Tom Dundon joined the charge to bring baseball to the Triangle. #5. San Diego metro area, California ByDroneVideos // Shutterstock – Population: 3.3M – Median age: 37.1 – Median net worth: $102,285 – Existing professional teams: — San Diego FC (MLS) — San Diego Wave FC (NWSL) — San Diego Padres (MLB) Unlike other cities on this list, San Diegoans don’t have to prove they’re football lovers. The city was home to the popular Chargers franchise for 56 years–until owner Dean Spanos moved it to Los Angeles because citizens voted down paying for a new stadium. San Diego is a good candidate for teams that want to relocate, but the eighth-largest city in the country may have to wait for the NFL to announce an expansion to get another football team. #4. Portland metro area, Oregon Terelyuk // Shutterstock – Population: 2.5M – Median age: 39.1 – Median net worth: $94,573 – Existing professional teams: — Portland Trail Blazers (NBA) — Portland Timbers (MLS) — Portland Thorns (NWSL) Health care, tech, and athletic companies enrich Portland’s economy–the area’s median income is about 13% higher than the national median. The size of the city may work against it–it’s just the 25th-largest metro area in the country. That said, Portland has had pro football before, with a World Football League team in the 1970s and a United States Football League team in the 1980s. #3. Orlando metro area, Florida Frame Craft 8 // Shutterstock – Population: 2.7M – Median age: 38.3 – Median net worth: $75,611 – Existing professional teams: — Orlando Magic (NBA) — Orlando City SC (MLS) — Orlando Pride (NWSL) Florida is already home to three NFL teams, but Orlando believes the league can put one more in the state–and it already has a relationship with the NFL. Since 2017, Camping World Stadium (home to college football’s annual Citrus Bowl) has played host to the NFL Pro Bowl six times. In November, Orange County officials approved $400 million in renovations to make the stadium an attractive candidate for the Jacksonville Jaguars, who will have to relocate temporarily while their stadium is upgraded. #2. Riverside metro area, California Matt Gush // Shutterstock – Population: 4.6M – Median age: 35.6 – Median net worth: $86,031 – No professional sports teams On paper, Riverside looks like it could support an NFL franchise. For starters, it’s the largest metro area without its own NFL franchise. However, it’s also part of the Los Angeles television market, which already supports two teams. A third team could dilute broadcast rights and the money that comes with them. #1. Austin metro area, Texas Wirestock Creators // Shutterstock – Population: 2.4M – Median age: 35.9 – Median net worth: $97,638 – Existing professional teams: — Austin FC (MLS) Austin’s population has boomed over the last decade on the strength of its tech sector, but the capital has big competition to land an NFL franchise with San Antonio just 80 miles down the road. The Alamo City has campaigned for a team since the 1990s, even building the Alamodome to attract one–a dream that has yet to come to fruition. Story editing by Mike Taylor. Additional editing by Elisa Huang and Kristen Wegrzyn. Copy editing by Robert Wickwire. Photo selection by Clarese Moller. This story originally appeared on Windfall and was produced and distributed in partnership with Stacker Studio.