NHC: Fred Aims At Panhandle, Grace To Miss Florida Completely

Daytona Beach, FL - It looks like only one of two systems in the Atlantic will impact Florida. As of Sunday evening, Tropical Storm Fred remains west of Florida as the storm—which has become better organized—continues on a northwesterly motion. The storm is expected to hook right and continue north over the west Panhandle and into Alabama by Monday or Tuesday (August 16-17). Despite some vertical shear, meteorologists say the intensity guidance continues to forecast strengthening while some tracks show a stronger Fred at landfall. After landfall, Fred should quickly weaken and dissipate as it moves into the Tennessee Valley. Reports from the National Hurricane Center say Fred has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph as it continues to the north-northwest at 10 mph. As for Tropical Depression Grace, that system remains on a westerly path expected to take the storm over Hispaniola—the entirety of which is currently under a Tropical Storm Watch. Since the system is below storm strength and is passing by Puerto Rico, the Tropical Storm Warnings for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands have been discontinued. NHC forecasters say the system has moved mainly westward throughout Sunday (August 15), but the track models are generally in agreement on a west-northwestward motion throughout Friday (August 20). Discussion about the storm from the NHC says this is consistent with a well-defined mid-level ridge staying in place over the southwestern Atlantic and across Florida during this week. On its current track, the NHC expects Grace to continue north-northwest over Hispaniola and Cuba throughout Wednesday before the storm exits out into the Gulf of Mexico where it’s likely to become a tropical storm again. As of Sunday evening, Grace was moving west at 15 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph.