NHC: Elsa Eyeing Turn Towards Florida

Daytona Beach, FL - The latest track from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami places Florida within Tropical Storm Elsa’s cone of probability. As of the NHC’s 2:00 p.m. update, Elsa is continuing on a west-northwestward track towards the Windward Islands, where tropical storm warnings are already in effect. Per the NHC’s current track, Elsa is expected to make landfall near Barbados by 8:00 a.m. on Friday (July 2). Forecasters say a rapid west-northwestward motion is likely for the next couple of days or so as Elsa is steered by a strong subtropical ridge to the north. From there, the storm is expected to approach a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough currently located over the eastern United States. Here is where Elsa’s track begins to diverge. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the ECMWF ensemble forecast a turn toward the north while the Global Forecast System (GFS) and United Kingdom Meteorological Agency (UKMET) are forecasting a west-northwestward to northwestward motion. According to the NHC, forecasters will lean more toward the GFS/UKMET solutions at this time, but the large spread in both the deterministic models and the ensembles make this part of the forecast of low confidence. Additional strengthening is expected during the next day or so as Elsa is expected to be in an environment conducive for development. Still, the fast forward motion could result in some decoupling of certain parts of the storm, which could limit strengthening. On the NHC’s current track, it’s likely that the United States, mainly Florida, won’t feel the effects of Elsa until Monday morning (July 5) at the earliest—if the track does not change much between now and then. Potential approach of Tropical Storm Elsa means now is the time to prepare: Read the full release here: https://t.co/P7NEaidaln pic.twitter.com/dgj1Z9bros— FlaglerEOC (@FlaglerEOC) July 1, 2021 Some local agencies, such as the Flagler County Emergency Operations Center, have already informed residents to make preparations due to the storm’s possible approach. News Daytona Beach will continue to monitor this storm and pass along updates as they come. Be sure to follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram to stay up to date.