Democrat David Jolly Leads Republican Byron Donalds in Florida Gubernatorial Poll

Both the Democratic and Republican primaries in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election appear to have clear frontrunners. Democrat David Jolly has a 15-point lead and Republican Byron Donalds has a 39-point lead in a recent Change Research poll among likely voters. The respondents were 2,070 registered voters polled from May 13 to 16, 1,593 of whom say they will likely vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election. In a theoretical general election matchup, Jolly leads Donalds 46% to 42% among registered voters who will likely vote, the poll shows. Byron Donalds Leads the Republicans Congressman Byron Donalds, who represents Florida’s 19th district in the U.S. House of Representatives, has emerged as the early favorite to win the GOP nomination for Florida governor. Incumbent Ron DeSantis is barred from running for a third term in office. Donalds polled at 48% in Change Research’s poll. Donalds’ campaign has earned the endorsements of President Donald Trump, senators Rick Scott and Ted Cruz, and 18 U.S. House members from Florida. Thus far he’s far outraised his primary opponents, with $7,104,287 as of April 1. None of the other Republicans had shown one million dollars raised at the same threshold. Second in the Change Research poll is James Fishback, a 31-year-old businessman with no prior political experience. Current Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins is third with 8%, followed by former Florida House Speaker Paul Renner at 3%. 28% of respondents were undecided. David Jolly Paces the Democrats Only two major candidates are competing in the Democratic gubernatorial primary: former congressman David Jolly and Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings. In Change Research’s poll, Jolly leads with 42% compared to Demings’ 27%. If Jolly secures the nomination, he’ll be the second straight Democratic nominee who was formerly a Republican. Jolly represented Florida’s 13th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives as a Republican from 2014 to 2017. By 2018, he announced he’d left the GOP. In the interim he identified as an Independent and with politician Andrew Yang’s Forward Party. He switched to the Democratic Party ahead of this year’s election. Florida’s foremost Democrats are split in their endorsements during this year’s primary. Jolly has gotten the nod from former gubernatorial nominee Gwen Graham, Clinton-administration HUD Secretary Donna Shalala, and Florida state Senate minority leader Lori Berman. Demings is supported by Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer, Orange County Sheriff John Mina, and Rep. Darren Soto. General Election Outlook If recent polling is indicative of anything, Florida may be gearing up for its most competitive gubernatorial election since 2018. Change Research found David Jolly ahead of Byron Donalds in a general election matchup, 46% to 42%. Florida has not had a Democratic governor since Buddy MacKay left office in 1999. In 2022 Ron DeSantis beat Charlie Crist with a comfortable 19.4% margin. Just four years prior, he only narrowly won over Andrew Gillum with 49.59% to Gillum’s 49.19%. Both of Rick Scott’s victories were close as well: he won by 1.1% in 2014 and 1.2% in 2010. If there is a Democratic resurgence, it may be due to attitudes around the cost of living. Change Research says 70% of Floridians feel like they’re behind the cost of living, and that 65% don’t think Florida is affordable for them and their family. Having to pay for gas, groceries, health care, homeowners’ insurance, and utilities all registered as sources of stress for at least seven out of ten voters. Democratic voter motivation also appears to be high: 88% of Democratic respondents said they’re motivated to vote versus 75% from Republicans. With Byron Donalds’ close ties to Donald Trump, he may have to overcome the president’s 28% favorability rating among NPA voters.