Above-Normal Hurricane Season on the Horizon

Tallahassee, FL (NSF) – Researchers have put forward a second above-normal forecast for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season. Colorado State University researchers on Thursday predicted 19 named storms, with nine growing into hurricanes, for the season that runs from June 1 to November 30. Four of the hurricanes could have winds topping 111 mph, according to the experts. “Sea surface temperatures averaged across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic are currently near average, while Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal,” the university researchers said in a press release. “We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.” Between 1991 and 2020, the Atlantic averaged 14.4 storms a season, with 7.2 reaching hurricane status and 3.2 a year categorized as major storms. In keeping with an AccuWeather forecast issued last week, the university prediction is based, in part, on a climatological phenomenon known as La Nina, which can limit vertical wind shear in the atmosphere. AccuWeather has predicted 16 to 20 named storms this year, with six to eight becoming hurricanes. Four to six of the storms could directly impact the U.S., the prediction said. The forecast also gave a “high chance” of a system forming before the June 1 start of the hurricane season. The past two hurricane seasons have exhausted lists of storm names, with a record 30 named storms in 2020 and 21 named systems in 2021.