Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody Lead in Polls, Hispanic Vote Trends Blue

Republicans are holding their polling leads in Florida’s U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections, despite Democratic candidates seemingly making inroads with the Latino vote. In a new N+ Univision poll Byron Donalds leads David Jolly by eight points, while Ashley Moody paces Angie Nixon by nine points. Democrats have gained ground in the overall Florida vote compared to 2022 and 2024. Neither the gubernatorial nor Senate race having a previously-elected Republican on the ballot. This newest poll surveyed 825 registered voters with a four-percent margin of error. The largest disparity between Latino voters and the general field occurred in the gubernatorial election. While Donalds leads Jolly 50%-42% overall, Latinos favor Jolly 48%-43%. On the Senate side, Moody leads Nixon 51%-42% overall while Nixon has a 45%-44% advantage among Latinos. Further analysis from the pollster indicates that while Latino voters have swung towards Democrats, their bloc is far from monolithic. Cuban voters remained Republican, supporting Donalds 51%-42% and Moody 51%-43%. Puerto Rican voters, meanwhile, picked Jolly 51%-35% and Nixon 50%-36%. Latinos of South American origin, meanwhile, support Jolly within the margin of error. Another driver of Latino voting changes appears to be opinions of Donald Trump’s handling of immigration issues. 44% of respondents say the Trump administration has gone too far with immigration enforcement, with that number increasing to 55% among Latinos. 29% of Latinos who voted for Trump in 2024 say enforcement has gone too far and/or that they’re worried themselves or someone close to them may be affected. While the overall polling results seem to show a shift toward Democrats consistent with fewer established Republican incumbents, the change also seems to stem from discontent over affordability under Trump. 68% of Florida voters disapprove of Trump on gas prices, 63% disapprove over cost of living, and 57% disapprove over housing affordability. If Democrats were to flip either the governorship or a Senate seat, it would mark a drastic shift from the last two election cycles. Gov. Ron DeSantis won re-election in 2022 with 59% of the vote, and Sen. Rick Scott won re-election in 2024 with 56%. A poll from the Democratic organization Change Research put Donalds Jolly at a 47%-47% tie this month, while a St. Pete Polls result earlier in October had them tied at 45%-45%.