Movies most likely to win each major Oscar category

Rodin Eckenroth/FilmMagic // Getty Images The Academy Awards ceremony is Hollywood’s biggest night, and in the weeks leading into the 95th soiree of pomp and cinematic excellence, film-world pundits have pored over this year’s facts, figures, and numbers to get down to the nitty-gritty of making their predictions of who will win and who will simply smile and politely clap. Film fans will only know the answer to those questions on Oscar night when those hallowed envelopes are opened and all suspense comes to an end. But until then, one can make logical predictions based on the awards the nominated films have already won and been nominated for so far. Handily, Metacritic keeps an ongoing scoreboard based on first-place wins, second-place wins, and overall nominations, all of which are then translated to cumulative points to get a sense of how well films are faring during awards season. Stacker looked at Metacritic’s film awards and nominations scorecard for 2022 films and cross-referenced it with Oscar nominations to determine which of the nominees are most likely to win 12 major categories based on how many nominations and wins they’ve received in previous awards shows, critics’ circles, and other significant voting bodies. The cinematography category was excluded because none of the six films Metacritic listed as most likely to win were nominated–proving it to be the most surprising category of the year. So, are you wondering which films currently dominate the scoreboard, and which upsets might come in at the last minute to steal the glory? Take a look at how things are shaping up in anticipation of this year’s Academy Awards. You may also like: 50 times actors hated their own movies Best Picture A24 – Top nominee: “Everything Everywhere All at Once” – Second: “The Banshees of Inisherin” – Third: “Tár” In the lead with 11 overall Oscar nominations and 26 first-place wins so far, gonzo action-comedy-drama “Everything Everywhere All at Once” might seem like the obvious Oscar front-runner. And while it’s certainly an impressive film with technical prowess and an impactful storyline, this genre-bending spectacle is not a classic Best Picture winner. Sure, there are sometimes outliers where genres such as horror or fantasy take the top prize–think “The Silence of the Lambs” or, more recently, “The Shape of Water.” But it feels less likely that an absurdist movie with butt-plug jokes would win Best Picture when up against a classic, well-acted emotional drama like “The Banshees of Inisherin,” or a searing psychological drama with timely themes like “Tár,” led by an acting heavyweight like Cate Blanchett. But upsets are common, and the overwhelmingly favorable critical and audience reception to “Everywhere” puts the film in an agreeable position. However, anyone making early predictions also shouldn’t count out Steven Spielberg’s “The Fabelmans”–which won the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture – Drama and happens to be about the childhood of one of Hollywood’s favorite directors–as a possible winner. Alternatively, the box-office success and overwhelmingly positive audience reception of “Top Gun: Maverick” has led some awards pundits to believe it could benefit from the Academy’s use of a preferential ballot system for the Best Picture category, positioning the Tom Cruise vehicle as a threat to win the top prize. Directing A24 – Top nominee: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” – Second: Todd Field, “Tár” – Third: Steven Spielberg, “The Fabelmans” “Everything Everywhere All at Once” is leading the pack in Best Director prizes this season, though “Tár” is not far behind, as the two films are both vying for wins in multiple top categories. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, better known as the Daniels, would be an exciting pick for Best Director, as oddball and ingenious indie darlings who rose from obscurity to craft what many have deemed the best film of 2022. And then we have Todd Field, director of “Tár” and beloved by many as Nick Nightingale of Stanley Kubrick’s “Eyes Wide Shut,” who returned to the director’s chair after a whopping 16 years and came out swinging with a taut, formally impressive, and nuanced take on cancel culture. With 28 wins thus far for the Daniels and only four for Field, it appears the Daniels should have this race locked up, but the Best Director winner could still be a dark horse. Steven Spielberg’s feel-good autobiographical drama “The Fabelmans” won the hearts of critics and audiences alike, and a long-time industry veteran honored for his most personal film might be a “safer” choice for Academy voters. Actress in a Leading Role A24 – Top nominee: Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” – Second: Cate Blanchett, “Tár” – Third: Michelle Williams, “The Fabelmans” Possibly the most heated race this Oscars season is the Best Actress category, widely seen as neck-and-neck between Michelle Yeoh in “Everything Everywhere All at Once” and Cate Blanchett in “Tár.” Both actresses are industry veterans with acclaimed filmographies, giving two of the best performances of their careers. Where they diverge, however, is the fact that Yeoh is the first East Asian actress to be nominated for this category–her win would both be long-deserved and a major step forward for the American film industry. On the other hand, while Blanchett has already won two Oscars–including Best Actress for “Blue Jasmine” in 2014–she gives a career-defining performance as Lydia Tár. Though Yeoh is currently ahead of Blanchett with an eight-point lead on Metacritic, once again, “The Fabelmans” pops in with a possible (however unlikely) upset from Michelle Williams, a five-time Oscar nominee whose performance as the erratic and emotionally distraught Mitzi Fabelman impressed many. Actor in a Leading Role 20th Century Studios – Top nominee: Colin Farrell, “The Banshees of Inisherin” – Second: Brendan Fraser, “The Whale” – Third: Austin Butler, “Elvis” Though the Best Actress category is one of the greatest face-offs of this Oscars season, the Best Actor category is just as tricky of a toss-up–split as it is between three incredible performances. First, you have Colin Farrell, an eclectic character actor finally getting his due for a darkly funny, sensitive, and subtle performance in “The Banshees of Inisherin.” Then you have Brendan Fraser in “The Whale,” which is not only considered his “comeback” role but clearly displays the emotional depth he’s always been capable of but perhaps was previously not afforded the opportunity to fully bring out. But perhaps the darkest of all dark horses is Austin Butler, a young actor mostly known for spots on Disney Channel and Nickelodeon productions, practically emerging from thin air to prove himself a force to be reckoned with through his embodiment of Elvis Presley in Baz Luhrmann’s “Elvis.” With 27 first-place wins, Farrell’s got a 34-point lead on Fraser and a 63-point lead on Butler–but Butler’s Best Actor – Drama Golden Globe win might prove to work in his favor for getting that Oscar gold. While Farrell also won the Best Actor – Musical or Comedy prize at the Globes, Butler’s transformative work in a musician biopic is the type of lead performance the Oscars have typically rewarded in recent years (look no further than Rami Malek’s win for “Bohemian Rhapsody” or when Renée Zellweger won for “Judy.”) And while Fraser is definitely still in the race, it should be noted the biggest disadvantage to him is a lack of a Best Picture nomination for his film; no actor has won this award for a film not nominated for the top prize since Jeff Bridges won for “Crazy Heart” in 2010. Actress in a Supporting Role 20th Century Studios – Top nominee: Kerry Condon, “The Banshees of Inisherin” – Second: Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu (tie), “Everything Everywhere All at Once” – Third: Angela Bassett, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” With two nominations in this category, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” has an ample edge in the Supporting Actress category. Between the two choices, a win for rising star Stephanie Hsu would be considered by many to be a bit more deserved–her chameleonic newcomer performance is remarkable, and while Curtis is great as always, a win would read more like a legacy achievement as opposed to awarding a more dynamic performance. Similarly, though not the same, is Angela Bassett in the sequel to “Black Panther.” Bassett is a widely acclaimed, previously nominated veteran actor who gives a strong showing in the popular Marvel film, but the strength of her work is perhaps not as surprising as that of Kerry Condon in “The Banshees of Inisherin.” The Irish actress is far from a household name in America, but she managed to eschew demographic obscurity to break hearts with her multilayered performance. But, while Condon appears to be the front-runner on paper, with 15 wins and 68 overall points, the three other actresses don’t trail too far behind her. With Bassett already picking up wins from the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards–both considered key precursors likely to align with the Academy Awards–the queen of Wakanda just might strike Oscar gold. You may also like: Mistakes from the 50 best movies of all time Actor in a Supporting Role